Dallas Stars
2-3
Chicago Blackhawks
2-5
Win Probability
The Dallas Stars travel to Chicago to face the Blackhawks in a matchup where AccuScore's simulation clearly favours the visitors. Jason Robertson projects a 51% chance of posting more than 0.5 points, while Anton Frondell leads the home side at 57%—a narrow advantage that understates Dallas's overall offensive edge in the model's view. The Stars' depth matters here: Mikko Rantanen sits at 57% to clear 0.5 points himself, giving Dallas multiple scoring threats against a Blackhawks offence where secondary production drops sharply below Frondell. On similar matchups over the model's history, the favoured away side has won 49% of the time, a cautionary note despite today's lean toward Dallas. Chicago would need to suppress the Stars' secondary scoring and convert limited chances into goals to overturn the simulation.
| Book | CHI | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +190 | +8.4% | -199 | -5.2% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars 60% to beat Chicago Blackhawks (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Chicago Blackhawks a 40% chance of beating Dallas Stars, against 60% for Dallas Stars. Chicago Blackhawks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Dallas Stars and Chicago Blackhawks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Dallas Stars have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Chicago Blackhawks have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 44 times since 2011: Dallas Stars 21, Chicago Blackhawks 23. The last meeting, on Apr 10, 2022, finished Dallas Stars 6, Chicago Blackhawks 4.
Dallas Stars are 232-176 as favourite and 166-210 as underdog, and 189-214 on the road (47% of 403 games, 2011–2022).
Chicago Blackhawks are 246-177 as favourite and 147-210 as underdog, and 209-184 at home (53% of 393 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | DAL | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 232-176 | 246-177 |
| As underdog | 166-210 | 147-210 |
| At home | 221-176 | 209-184 |
| On the road | 189-214 | 189-209 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →