Milwaukee Bucks
1-1
Washington Wizards
2-0
Win Probability
The Milwaukee Bucks travel to face the Washington Wizards in a matchup the model leans slightly toward the hosts to win. Washington's depth gives it a marginal advantage in a contest projected tight enough that the combined score has a 51% chance of climbing over the market total. On games shaped this way—close calls favoring the home team—AccuScore's record stands at 50% over 239 graded contests. The Wizards' ability to execute in transition and limit second-chance opportunities will be decisive; Milwaukee's guards must control the tempo to force Washington into a halfcourt grind. For the Bucks to pull the upset, they'll need to dominate the glass and convert at high volume from three.
| Book | Line | WAS | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| novig | -5.5 | -122 | -13.3% | -106 | +8.0% |
| Book | WAS | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -208 | -9.2% | +208 | +18.8% |
| novig | -208 | -9.2% | +186 | +13.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| novig | 237.5 | -120 | -10.0% | -115 | +2.7% |
NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington Wizards 55% to beat Milwaukee Bucks (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington Wizards the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington Wizards a 55% chance of beating Milwaukee Bucks, against 45% for Milwaukee Bucks. Washington Wizards are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Milwaukee Bucks and Washington Wizards come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 55 times since 2011: Milwaukee Bucks 31, Washington Wizards 24. The last meeting, on Jan 29, 2026, finished Milwaukee Bucks 99, Washington Wizards 109.
Milwaukee Bucks are 511-250 as favourite and 172-369 as underdog, and 306-376 on the road (45% of 682 games, 2010–2026).
Washington Wizards are 258-165 as favourite and 237-595 as underdog, and 316-344 at home (48% of 660 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIL | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 511-250 | 258-165 |
| As underdog | 172-369 | 237-595 |
| At home | 418-264 | 316-344 |
| On the road | 306-376 | 210-450 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →