NBA
Chicago Bulls
1-1
Toronto Raptors
1-1
Win Probability
The Chicago Bulls travel to Toronto to face the Raptors in a matchup the simulation favours clearly toward the home side. Toronto's advantage turns on three-point shooting: the model projects the Raptors to hit 38% from distance while projecting the Bulls at 34%, a gap that compounds across 10,000 simulations into a four-point margin. Across eight structurally similar games, AccuScore's model has gone 6-2 on backing the home team in this win-probability range. For Chicago to escape with a win, the Bulls would need to flip that shooting script and win the perimeter battle decisively.
| Book | TOR | EV | CHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -308 | -11.1% | +308 | +34.0% |
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Raptors 59% to beat Chicago Bulls (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Raptors the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Raptors a 59% chance of beating Chicago Bulls, against 41% for Chicago Bulls. Toronto Raptors are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 58 times since 2010: Chicago Bulls 33, Toronto Raptors 25. The last meeting, on Mar 18, 2026, finished Toronto Raptors 139, Chicago Bulls 109.
Chicago Bulls are 400-201 as favourite and 229-431 as underdog, and 294-365 on the road (45% of 659 games, 2010–2026).
Toronto Raptors are 476-217 as favourite and 205-408 as underdog, and 407-283 at home (59% of 690 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | CHI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 400-201 | 476-217 |
| As underdog | 229-431 | 205-408 |
| At home | 364-299 | 407-283 |
| On the road | 294-365 | 308-376 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →