NBA
Dallas Mavericks
0-1
Houston Rockets
1-0
Win Probability
The Dallas Mavericks visit the Houston Rockets in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Dallas will need to lean heavily on perimeter shooting to keep pace, while Houston's offensive execution in the paint becomes critical to their advantage. Across eight statistically similar games, the favoured home team won four times—a reminder that the model's lean, though decisive, leaves room for upset. The game turns on whether Dallas can generate consistent three-point volume against Houston's interior presence. For the Mavericks to pull the upset, they would need to limit Houston's efficiency in transition and convert at the perimeter at well above their projected rate.
| Book | Line | HOU | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| novig | -7.5 | -125 | -3.5% | -106 | -3.1% |
| Book | HOU | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -292 | -2.9% | +292 | +8.2% |
| novig | -308 | -3.5% | +251 | +2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| novig | 228.5 | -122 | -11.1% | -113 | +4.0% |
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets 70% to beat Dallas Mavericks (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Houston Rockets a 70% chance of beating Dallas Mavericks, against 30% for Dallas Mavericks. Houston Rockets are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 66 times since 2010: Dallas Mavericks 33, Houston Rockets 33. The last meeting, on Jan 31, 2026, finished Dallas Mavericks 107, Houston Rockets 111.
Dallas Mavericks are 440-217 as favourite and 223-418 as underdog, and 308-379 on the road (45% of 687 games, 2010–2026).
Houston Rockets are 541-249 as favourite and 177-334 as underdog, and 431-255 at home (63% of 686 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | DAL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 440-217 | 541-249 |
| As underdog | 223-418 | 177-334 |
| At home | 388-291 | 431-255 |
| On the road | 308-379 | 306-375 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →