Pittsburgh Penguins
3-3
Utah Mammoth
6-2
Win Probability
Utah Mammoth hosts Pittsburgh Penguins in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Clayton Keller projects as Utah's most likely contributor, with a 65% chance of recording more than 0.5 points, while Erik Karlsson carries a 57% chance for the visitors. The game hinges on whether Utah's depth can sustain pressure; Mikhail Sergachev and Nick Schmaltz both show 54-58% point probabilities, suggesting the Mammoth's secondary scoring may pull away from Pittsburgh's. AccuScore's model has returned minus-3.2% on similar home-favored games across 2,444 graded contests, a cautionary note for backing the lean. Pittsburgh would need Evgeni Malkin or Sidney Crosby [Pittsburgh Penguins]—both below 45% on projections—to exceed expectations and steal a road result.
| Book | UTA | EV | PIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -130 | -2.1% | +130 | +2.7% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah Mammoth 54% to beat Pittsburgh Penguins (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah Mammoth the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah Mammoth a 54% chance of beating Pittsburgh Penguins, against 46% for Pittsburgh Penguins. Utah Mammoth are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Pittsburgh Penguins and Utah Mammoth come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pittsburgh Penguins have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Utah Mammoth have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Pittsburgh Penguins are 460-308 as favourite and 163-214 as underdog, and 278-308 on the road (47% of 586 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | PIT | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 460-308 | — |
| As underdog | 163-214 | — |
| At home | 363-226 | — |
| On the road | 278-308 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →