San Jose Sharks
4-3
Montreal Canadiens
3-3
Win Probability
The San Jose Sharks travel to Montreal to face the Montreal Canadiens in a coin-flip matchup that the simulation favours only marginally to the home side. Macklin Celebrini projects as the game's most likely point producer at 64%, while Nick Suzuki sits at 58%; neither team's secondary scoring shows strong conviction, with Tyler Toffoli at 39% and Lane Hutson at 53%. The game hinges on whether either offence can sustain volume—the simulation projects a combined 5.3 goals, well below most market totals. AccuScore's record on similarly shaped home-side leans stands at 49% over 2,445 games, a cautionary marker. For San Jose to pull the upset, their depth would need to outpace Montreal's complementary weapons on the road.
| Book | MON | EV | SAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -186 | -10.8% | +190 | +21.1% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Montreal Canadiens 51% to beat San Jose Sharks (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Montreal Canadiens the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Montreal Canadiens a 51% chance of beating San Jose Sharks, against 49% for San Jose Sharks. Montreal Canadiens are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How San Jose Sharks and Montreal Canadiens come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Jose Sharks have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Montreal Canadiens have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 22 times since 2011: San Jose Sharks 16, Montreal Canadiens 6. The last meeting, on Mar 14, 2026, finished San Jose Sharks 4, Montreal Canadiens 2.
San Jose Sharks are 276-225 as favourite and 226-397 as underdog, and 235-335 on the road (41% of 570 games, 2011–2026).
Montreal Canadiens are 239-195 as favourite and 279-419 as underdog, and 280-297 at home (49% of 577 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SAN | MON |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 276-225 | 239-195 |
| As underdog | 226-397 | 279-419 |
| At home | 274-297 | 280-297 |
| On the road | 235-335 | 249-327 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →