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NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Tue, Oct 20, 2026, 10:30 PM ET

← Today's Edges
NHL•Wed, Oct 21 • 2:30 AMSilver Edge
TB

Tampa Bay Lightning

5-2

VS
VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

7-2

Win Probability

Moneyline

TB

+115

42.8% win prob

EV -4.0%

Kalshi

Moneyline

VGK

-111

57.2% win prob

EV +4.4%

Kalshi

Analysis

The simulation favours Vegas Golden Knights slightly in this matchup between the Golden Knights hosting Tampa Bay Lightning. Nikita Kucherov projects at a 38% chance of exceeding one point, while Jack Eichel sits at 40%—marginal separation between the teams' primary creators. The game turns on whether either offence can sustain pressure; the projected total suggests a tight affair where depth scoring matters. AccuScore's model has gone 49% over similar home-lean games at this win-probability range, a cautionary baseline. Tampa Bay Lightning win if their road offence punches through early and forces Vegas into chase mode.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Puck Line (-1.5/+1.5)TB -1.5
7-0.25-7.5
TB Cover
32.1%
no odds at this line
VGK Cover
67.8%
no odds at this line
Total (Over/Under)O/U 6.5
0.56.7513
Over Cover
46.4%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
53.6%
no odds at this line

Player Props

VGK TB
Sort:

Odds Comparison

Moneyline

BookVGKEVTBEV
Kalshi ↗-111+4.4%+115-4.0%

Where to Bet

silver
VGK ML+4.4% EV

Win probability: 57.2%

Kalshi
-111Bet →

AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights 57% to beat Tampa Bay Lightning (43%).

Projection updated Oct 17, 8:41 AM ET

Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights?

AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Vegas Golden Knights beat Tampa Bay Lightning?

AccuScore's simulation gives Vegas Golden Knights a 57% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 43% for Tampa Bay Lightning. Vegas Golden Knights are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Every Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights meeting →Tampa Bay Lightning predictions & record →Vegas Golden Knights predictions & record →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Tampa Bay LightningWLWWW
  • Oct 15vs Seattle KrakenW 4–3
  • Oct 13at New York RangersL 1–4
  • Oct 10at New York IslandersW 5–3
  • Oct 8vs Minnesota WildW 3–2
  • Oct 5vs Philadelphia FlyersW 4–1

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).

Vegas Golden KnightsWWLWW
  • Oct 15vs Calgary FlamesW 6–2
  • Oct 13at Nashville PredatorsW 5–2
  • Oct 12at Minnesota WildL 2–4
  • Oct 10vs Los Angeles KingsW 2–1
  • Oct 8vs Toronto Maple LeafsW 4–3

Vegas Golden Knights have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 16 times since 2017: Tampa Bay Lightning 8, Vegas Golden Knights 8. The last meeting, on Nov 6, 2025, finished Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Vegas Golden Knights 3.

  • Nov 6, 2025TB 6 – 3 VGK
  • Oct 26, 2025VGK 1 – 2 TB
  • Mar 23, 2025TB 2 – 4 VGK
  • Oct 17, 2024VGK 3 – 4 TB
  • Mar 19, 2024TB 5 – 3 VGK
Every Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights meeting →

Betting trends

Tampa Bay Lightning are 573-345 as favourite and 133-161 as underdog, and 316-297 on the road (52% of 613 games, 2011–2026).

Vegas Golden Knights are 370-225 as favourite and 107-119 as underdog, and 265-157 at home (63% of 422 games, 2017–2026).

RecordTBVGK
As favourite573-345370-225
As underdog133-161107-119
At home405-216265-157
On the road316-297220-195

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →