Philadelphia Flyers
1-6
Buffalo Sabres
4-3
Win Probability
The Buffalo Sabres host a struggling Philadelphia Flyers side that arrives with just one win through seven games. AccuScore's simulation leans clearly toward the home team, with the outcome hinging on whether Buffalo can generate secondary scoring beyond its top line. Tage Thompson carries a 33% chance of reaching two points, while Trevor Zegras sits at just 18% for the same threshold—a gap that captures the offensive disparity the model sees. Over similar matchups in the past, the favoured side has won 6 of 8 times. For Philadelphia to escape with a result, it would need Owen Tippett to produce at a rate well above his 49% baseline and find a way to limit Jack Quinn, who carries a 24% chance of exceeding one point.
| Book | BUF | EV | PHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -174 | +2.8% | +178 | -4.1% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Sabres 67% to beat Philadelphia Flyers (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Sabres the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Buffalo Sabres a 67% chance of beating Philadelphia Flyers, against 33% for Philadelphia Flyers. Buffalo Sabres are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Philadelphia Flyers and Buffalo Sabres come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Philadelphia Flyers have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Buffalo Sabres have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 47 times since 2011: Philadelphia Flyers 27, Buffalo Sabres 20. The last meeting, on Jan 14, 2026, finished Philadelphia Flyers 2, Buffalo Sabres 5.
Philadelphia Flyers are 237-181 as favourite and 273-419 as underdog, and 230-332 on the road (41% of 562 games, 2011–2026).
Buffalo Sabres are 148-114 as favourite and 302-503 as underdog, and 249-298 at home (46% of 547 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | PHI | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 237-181 | 148-114 |
| As underdog | 273-419 | 302-503 |
| At home | 288-278 | 249-298 |
| On the road | 230-332 | 212-333 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →