New York Rangers
6-3
Toronto Maple Leafs
3-4
Win Probability
The New York Rangers travel to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Auston Matthews projects as the game's most likely scorer at 62% to record more than 0.5 points, while William Nylander sits at 59%; on the Rangers side, both Mika Zibanejad and Alexis Lafreniere check in at around 53%. The game hinges on whether Toronto's top-end talent can overcome New York's slight advantage—the Rangers' forwards will need to limit their chances against a Leafs team built around elite offensive weapons. AccuScore's model has called games shaped like this one correctly 49% of the time across its historical record. For Toronto to prevail at home, the Maple Leafs would need their scoring depth to outpace the Rangers' slight edge in overall team projection.
| Book | TOR | EV | NYR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +113 | -3.5% | -104 | +5.2% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Rangers 56% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Rangers the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Maple Leafs a 44% chance of beating New York Rangers, against 56% for New York Rangers. Toronto Maple Leafs are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New York Rangers have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Toronto Maple Leafs have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 40 times since 2011: New York Rangers 20, Toronto Maple Leafs 20. The last meeting, on Mar 25, 2026, finished New York Rangers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4.
New York Rangers are 406-258 as favourite and 213-275 as underdog, and 301-288 on the road (51% of 589 games, 2011–2026).
Toronto Maple Leafs are 386-278 as favourite and 194-266 as underdog, and 318-260 at home (55% of 578 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NYR | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 406-258 | 386-278 |
| As underdog | 213-275 | 194-266 |
| At home | 332-261 | 318-260 |
| On the road | 301-288 | 274-298 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →