Florida Panthers vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction, Odds & Live Score — Oct 22

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NHL•Thu, Oct 22 • 11:00 PMSilver Edge

FLA

Florida Panthers

5-2

PIT

Pittsburgh Penguins

3-5

Win Probability

Moneyline

FLA

+108

55.1% win prob

EV +7.3%

Kalshi

Moneyline

PIT

-100

44.9% win prob

EV -5.1%

Kalshi

Analysis

The Florida Panthers travel to Pittsburgh to face the Penguins in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Matthew Tkachuk projects to exceed 0.5 points in 71% of outcomes, while Erik Karlsson reaches that mark in 59% of simulations—a meaningful gap that reflects Florida's scoring advantage. The game tightens considerably in the middle tiers: Brady Tkachuk sits at 54%, and neither Sidney Crosby nor Evgeni Malkin breaks 45%. On similar win-probability shapes across eight other past matchups, the favored side won five times. Pittsburgh would need to suppress Florida's depth scoring and generate more production from its secondary options to flip the result.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Puck Line (-1.5/+1.5)FLA -1.5

70.5-6

FLA Cover

41.4%

no odds at this line

PIT Cover

58.6%

no odds at this line

Total (Over/Under)O/U 6.5

0.56.7513

Over Cover

48.9%

no odds at this line

Under Cover

51.1%

no odds at this line

Player Props

PIT FLA

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Odds Comparison

Moneyline

Book	PIT	EV	FLA	EV
Kalshi ↗	-100	-5.1%	+108	+7.3%

Where to Bet

silver

FLA ML+7.3% EV

Win probability: 55.1%

Kalshi

+108Bet →

AccuScore's simulation makes Florida Panthers 55% to beat Pittsburgh Penguins (45%).

Projection updated Oct 19, 4:25 PM ET

Who will win Florida Panthers vs Pittsburgh Penguins?

AccuScore's simulation makes Florida Panthers the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Pittsburgh Penguins beat Florida Panthers?

AccuScore's simulation gives Pittsburgh Penguins a 45% chance of beating Florida Panthers, against 55% for Florida Panthers. Pittsburgh Penguins are at home but the underdog on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Florida Panthers and Pittsburgh Penguins come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Florida PanthersWWWLL

Oct 17vs Seattle KrakenW 8–3
Oct 15vs Vancouver CanucksW 3–2
Oct 13at Columbus Blue JacketsW 7–3
Oct 12at Buffalo SabresL 3–5
Oct 10vs Minnesota WildL 1–4

Florida Panthers have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).

Pittsburgh PenguinsLLLWL

Oct 17at Vegas Golden KnightsL 2–6
Oct 16at Colorado AvalancheL 2–5
Oct 13at Chicago BlackhawksL 3–5
Oct 10vs Dallas StarsW 2–1
Oct 9at Columbus Blue JacketsL 2–3

Pittsburgh Penguins have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 40 times since 2011: Florida Panthers 16, Pittsburgh Penguins 24. The last meeting, on Apr 5, 2026, finished Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5.

Apr 5, 2026FLA 2 – 5 PIT
Apr 4, 2026FLA 4 – 9 PIT
Oct 23, 2025PIT 5 – 3 FLA
Mar 23, 2025PIT 3 – 4 FLA
Jan 3, 2025PIT 2 – 3 FLA

Every Florida Panthers vs Pittsburgh Penguins meeting →

Betting trends

Florida Panthers are 390-259 as favourite and 218-278 as underdog, and 286-305 on the road (48% of 591 games, 2011–2026).

Pittsburgh Penguins are 460-308 as favourite and 163-216 as underdog, and 363-226 at home (62% of 589 games, 2011–2026).

Record	FLA	PIT
As favourite	390-259	460-308
As underdog	218-278	163-216
At home	339-249	363-226
On the road	286-305	278-310

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →