NHL
Winnipeg Jets
4-2
Dallas Stars
4-3
Win Probability
This barely leans toward the travelling Winnipeg Jets in what amounts to a coin-flip matchup. Kyle Connor projects at a 36% chance of exceeding one point, while Roope Hintz sits at 50% to record any point at all—a gap that captures how Dallas's depth could exploit Winnipeg's depth chart. The simulation has called games shaped like this one 49% of the time over 2,685 graded instances. Dallas Stars win at home if their secondary contributors stay involved; the Jets prevail by leaning on their elite forwards to create consistently.
| Book | DAL | EV | WIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -174 | -12.0% | +190 | +25.1% |
AccuScore's simulation makes Winnipeg Jets 52% to beat Dallas Stars (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Winnipeg Jets the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Stars a 48% chance of beating Winnipeg Jets, against 52% for Winnipeg Jets. Dallas Stars are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Winnipeg Jets have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Dallas Stars have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 52 times since 2012: Winnipeg Jets 25, Dallas Stars 27. The last meeting, on Apr 2, 2026, finished Winnipeg Jets 0, Dallas Stars 3.
Winnipeg Jets are 349-229 as favourite and 238-298 as underdog, and 270-298 on the road (48% of 568 games, 2011–2026).
Dallas Stars are 420-287 as favourite and 206-255 as underdog, and 342-255 at home (57% of 597 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WIN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 349-229 | 420-287 |
| As underdog | 238-298 | 206-255 |
| At home | 329-244 | 342-255 |
| On the road | 270-298 | 303-298 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →