NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 9:00 PM ET

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NHL•Sat, Oct 24 • 1:00 AMSilver Edge

Tampa Bay Lightning

6-2

COL

Colorado Avalanche

5-3

Win Probability

Moneyline

+130

35.8% win prob

EV -8.8%

Kalshi

Moneyline

COL

-120

64.2% win prob

EV +8.9%

Kalshi

Analysis

Colorado Avalanche hosts Tampa Bay Lightning in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Nathan MacKinnon carries a 46% chance of recording more than one point, while Nikita Kucherov sits at 37%—a gap that reflects the model's view of play-driving advantage. The game turns on whether Tampa Bay's depth can generate secondary scoring; Brayden Point and John Carlson each project at roughly 45% to reach the scoresheet. Across eight structurally similar games, the model's lean has gone 7-1. For the Lightning to pull the upset, they would need to neutralize that home-ice scoring edge and win the bottleneck battle in the middle periods.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Puck Line (-1.5/+1.5)TB -1.5

60-6

TB Cover

30.7%

no odds at this line

COL Cover

69.3%

no odds at this line

Total (Over/Under)O/U 6.5

0.56.7513

Over Cover

49.8%

no odds at this line

Under Cover

50.2%

no odds at this line

Player Props

COL TB

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Odds Comparison

Moneyline

Book	COL	EV	TB	EV
Kalshi ↗	-120	+8.9%	+130	-8.8%

Where to Bet

silver

COL ML+8.9% EV

Win probability: 64.2%

Kalshi

-120Bet →

AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche 64% to beat Tampa Bay Lightning (36%).

Projection updated Oct 20, 11:06 AM ET

Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche?

AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Colorado Avalanche beat Tampa Bay Lightning?

AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado Avalanche a 64% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 36% for Tampa Bay Lightning. Colorado Avalanche are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Tampa Bay LightningWWLWW

Oct 17vs Vancouver CanucksW 4–2
Oct 15vs Seattle KrakenW 4–3
Oct 13at New York RangersL 1–4
Oct 10at New York IslandersW 5–3
Oct 8vs Minnesota WildW 3–2

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).

Colorado AvalancheLWLWL

Oct 19at Philadelphia FlyersL 2–3
Oct 16vs Pittsburgh PenguinsW 5–2
Oct 14vs Dallas StarsL 2–3
Oct 13at Dallas StarsW 3–2
Oct 10vs Toronto Maple LeafsL 3–6

Colorado Avalanche have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 28 times since 2015: Tampa Bay Lightning 16, Colorado Avalanche 12. The last meeting, on Jan 6, 2026, finished Colorado Avalanche 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.

Jan 6, 2026COL 2 – 4 TB
Nov 4, 2025TB 2 – 3 COL
Nov 25, 2024COL 2 – 8 TB
Oct 30, 2024TB 5 – 2 COL
Feb 15, 2024COL 3 – 6 TB

Every Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche meeting →

Betting trends

Tampa Bay Lightning are 574-345 as favourite and 133-161 as underdog, and 316-297 on the road (52% of 613 games, 2011–2026).

Colorado Avalanche are 440-252 as favourite and 190-273 as underdog, and 345-243 at home (59% of 588 games, 2011–2026).

Record	TB	COL
As favourite	574-345	440-252
As underdog	133-161	190-273
At home	406-216	345-243
On the road	316-297	294-294

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →