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← Today's Edges
World Cup•FINALSilver Edge
BRA

Brazil

2

:
JPN

Japan

1

Win Probability

Moneyline

BRA

-120

71.1% win prob

EV +15.2%

Betano

Draw

Draw

+261

18% prob

EV -16.8%

Pinnacle

Moneyline

JPN

+438

10.5% win prob

EV -21.8%

Pinnacle

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Total (Over/Under)O/U 2.5
0.53.56.5
Over Cover
59.7%
EV +15.6%
+120bet365 ↗
Under Cover
40.3%
EV -16.3%
-149bet365 ↗

Goal Scorer Probabilities

Japan

Ayase Ueda
17%
Junya Ito
13%
Ritsu Doan
12%
Takefusa Kubo
9%
Daichi Kamada
8%
Keito Nakamura
8%

Brazil

Junior Vinicius
45%
Raphinha
38%
Matheus Cunha
32%
Bruno Guimaraes
23%
Casemiro
15%
Gabriel Martinelli
13%

Odds Comparison

Away / Draw / Home

BookBRAEVDrawEVJPNEV
Pinnacle ↗-128+13.3%+261-16.8%+438-21.8%
Betfair ↗-137+11.5%+240-18.7%+400-23.8%
Betano ↗-120+15.2%——+400-23.8%
bet365 ↗-125+14.0%+250-17.8%+375-25.1%
William Hill ↗-137+11.5%——+400-23.8%

Total (O/U)

BookLineOverEV (O)UnderEV (U)
Pinnacle ↗2.5+125+17.1%-143-15.7%
Betano ↗2.5+118+15.0%-139-15.3%
bet365 ↗2.5+120+15.6%-149-16.3%
JPN 3-4-2-1Lineup4-3-3 BRA
AlissonDaniloMarquinhosMagalhãesSantosGuimarãesCasemiroPaquetáRayanCunhaJúniorSuzukiTomiyasuTaniguchiItōDoanSanoKamadaNakamuraItoMaedaUeda
JPNBRA

Match Events

90
⚽
Gabriel Martinelli(ass. Bruno Guimarães)
BRA
84
🟨
Junnosuke Suzuki
JPN
56
⚽
Casemiro(ass. Gabriel Magalhães)
BRA
48
🟨
Danilo
BRA
45
🟨
Daichi Kamada
JPN
29
⚽
Kaishu Sano
JPN
14
🟨
Casemiro
BRA
12
🟨
Kaishu Sano
JPN

Match Statistics

JPNPossessionBRA
32%
68%
5
Shots
19
2
On Target
7
2
Corners
6
13
Fouls
4
0
Offsides
1
4
Saves
1
0.23
xG
1.69
315 (261)
Passes
682 (625)
3-4-2-1
Formation
4-3-3

Player Stats

JPN

#PlayerMinGAPssSvRat
1Zion SuzukiG90——29(20)47.2
22Takehiro TomiyasuD90——33(26)—7.7
3Shogo TaniguchiD90——47(44)—6.6
21Hiroki ItōD90——36(28)—6.2
24Kaishu SanoM901—32(29)—7.6
15Daichi KamadaM78——33(33)—6.7
10Ritsu DoanM66——17(13)—6.7
13Keito NakamuraM66——21(18)—6.5
18Ayase UedaF90——10(6)—6.2
11Daizen MaedaF89——14(13)—6.9
14Junya ItoF78——20(16)—6.9
Substitutes
12Keisuke OsakoG sub——————
23Tomoki HayakawaG sub——————
2Yukinari SugawaraD sub24——5(2)—6.7
25Junnosuke SuzukiD sub24——5(3)—6.2
4Ko ItakuraD sub——————
5Yuto NagatomoD sub——————
16Tsuyoshi WatanabeD sub——————
20Ayumu SekoD sub——————
7Ao TanakaM sub12——10(7)—6.3
17Yuito SuzukiM sub——————
6Shuto MachinoF sub12——3(3)—6.3
19Koki OgawaF sub1—————
8Takefusa KuboF sub——————
26Kento ShiogaiF sub——————
9Keisuke GotoF sub——————

Where to Bet

silver
BRA ML+15.2% EV

Win probability: 71.1%

Betano
-120Bet →
bet365
-125Bet →
Pinnacle
-128Bet →
Betfair
-137Bet →
William Hill
-137Bet →

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World Cup

Brazil vs Japan Prediction

Final · BRA 2–1 JPN · Mon, Jun 29, 2026, 1:00 PM ET

AccuScore's simulation makes Brazil 71% to win, Japan 11%, with a 18% chance of a draw. Final score: Brazil 2, Japan 1.

Projection updated Aug 17, 4:34 PM ET

Who will win Brazil vs Japan?

AccuScore's simulation makes Brazil the more likely winner at 71%, with a 18% chance of a draw. The game finished Brazil 2, Japan 1.

Will Japan beat Brazil?

AccuScore's simulation gives Japan a 11% chance of beating Brazil, with 71% for Brazil and 18% for a draw. It finished Japan 1, Brazil 2.

Brazil predictions & record →Japan predictions & record →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Brazil and Japan come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

BrazilWWD
  • Jun 24vs ScotlandW 3–0
  • Jun 19at HaitiW 3–0
  • Jun 13at MoroccoD 1–1

Brazil have won 2 of their last 3 (W-W-D, most recent first).

JapanDWD
  • Jun 25at SwedenD 1–1
  • Jun 21vs TunisiaW 4–0
  • Jun 14vs NetherlandsD 2–2

Japan have won 1 of their last 3 (D-W-D, most recent first).