Cincinnati Bengals
5-2
Atlanta Falcons
3-5
Win Probability
The Cincinnati Bengals travel to face the Atlanta Falcons in a matchup where the simulation favors Cincinnati clearly. Joe Burrow is projected for 280 passing yards, while Atlanta's ground game centers on Bijan Robinson at 115 yards from scrimmage—a gap that defines how this game likely unfolds. The Bengals' passing volume and the Falcons' reliance on their running back suggest Cincinnati's aerial attack will dominate possession and field position. AccuScore's model has favored sides this strongly in 1,447 graded games and won 64% of them. For Atlanta to pull the upset, Robinson would need to break loose and the Falcons' pass defense would have to hold Burrow and Tee Higgins well below their projected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H CIN ML
CIN -150
-1.2% EV
53.9% leads · push 7.8%
Fanatics ↗
1H ATL ML
ATL +130
-2.1% EV
38.3% leads · push 7.8%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
CIN -2.5 -108
-1.6% EV
50.3% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Spread
ATL +2.5 -108
-2.1% EV
49.7% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -108
+0.2% EV
52.1% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 +100
-2.1% EV
47.9% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | ATL | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +3 | +100 | -0.4% | -120 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +3 | -105 | -1.5% | -115 | -2.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +3 | +100 | -0.4% | -120 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +3 | -105 | -1.5% | -115 | -2.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +3.5 | -120 | -0.7% | +100 | -3.8% |
| Book | ATL | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +150 | -1.5% | -180 | -2.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +140 | -3.4% | -166 | -1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +145 | -2.5% | -175 | -2.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | +144 | -2.7% | -170 | -1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +145 | -2.5% | -170 | -1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -2.4% | -115 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 52.5 | -108 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -3.4% | -109 | -0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 53.5 | -105 | -4.6% | -115 | +0.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NFL
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati Bengals 61% to beat Atlanta Falcons (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati Bengals the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Atlanta Falcons a 39% chance of beating Cincinnati Bengals, against 61% for Cincinnati Bengals. Atlanta Falcons are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2 so far) project to finish 11.6–5.4 and make the playoffs in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Atlanta Falcons (3-5 so far) project to finish 7.2–9.8 and make the playoffs in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11.6–5.4 | 55% | 85% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.2–9.8 | 22% | 26% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cincinnati Bengals have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Atlanta Falcons have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2014: Cincinnati Bengals 3, Atlanta Falcons 0. The last meeting, on Oct 23, 2022, finished Atlanta Falcons 17, Cincinnati Bengals 35.
Cincinnati Bengals are 91-48-2 as favourite and 43-78-1 as underdog, and 62-70-1 on the road (47% of 133 games, 2011–2026).
Atlanta Falcons are 79-57 as favourite and 45-79 as underdog, and 67-64 at home (51% of 131 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CIN | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 91-48-2 | 79-57 |
| As underdog | 43-78-1 | 45-79 |
| At home | 72-57-2 | 67-64 |
| On the road | 62-70-1 | 57-73 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →