NFL
Dallas Cowboys
3-5
Indianapolis Colts
2-6
Win Probability
The Dallas Cowboys travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts in a matchup where the simulation favours Dallas clearly. Javonte Williams projects for 95 yards from scrimmage for the visitors, while Jonathan Taylor is expected to manage 80 yards for the hosts. The game hinges on Dallas's ability to establish its passing game; both Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones are projected for 260 passing yards, but the Cowboys' supporting cast—led by CeeDee Lamb at 80 receiving yards—suggests sharper efficiency. AccuScore's simulation favours outcomes shaped like this one 75% of the time across eight comparable games. For Indianapolis to pull the upset, it would need Taylor to break out significantly and limit Dallas's aerial attack.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H DAL ML
DAL -190
-4.7% EV
54.0% leads · push 8.1%
Fanatics ↗
1H IND ML
IND +165
+4.3% EV
37.9% leads · push 8.1%
betPARX ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
DAL -3.5 -102
-6.2% EV
44.3% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
IND +3.5 -105
+4.4% EV
55.7% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -115
-0.0% EV
53.5% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 -104
-4.4% EV
46.5% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | IND | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +6 | -110 | +8.9% | -110 | -13.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | +7.0% | -110 | -11.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +6 | -110 | +8.9% | -108 | -13.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | +5.5 | -105 | +8.3% | -114 | -12.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | +7.0% | -110 | -11.5% |
| Book | IND | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +220 | +10.6% | -270 | -7.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +215 | +9.7% | -260 | -7.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +210 | +8.7% | -250 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +210 | +8.7% | -265 | -7.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +220 | +10.6% | -270 | -7.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | +2.5% | -110 | -7.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | +2.5% | -110 | -7.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 51.5 | -108 | +3.0% | -110 | -7.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 51.5 | -109 | +2.7% | -112 | -7.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | +2.5% | -110 | -7.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 37.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Cowboys 62% to beat Indianapolis Colts (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Cowboys the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indianapolis Colts a 38% chance of beating Dallas Cowboys, against 62% for Dallas Cowboys. Indianapolis Colts are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Dallas Cowboys (3-5 so far) project to finish 7.4–9.6 and make the playoffs in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Indianapolis Colts (2-6 so far) project to finish 5.4–11.6 and make the playoffs in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.4–9.6 | 24% | 27% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 5.4–11.6 | 1% | 4% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Dallas Cowboys have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Indianapolis Colts have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2014: Dallas Cowboys 2, Indianapolis Colts 1. The last meeting, on Dec 4, 2022, finished Indianapolis Colts 19, Dallas Cowboys 54.
Dallas Cowboys are 106-55 as favourite and 36-63-1 as underdog, and 67-64 on the road (51% of 131 games, 2011–2026).
Indianapolis Colts are 83-38-1 as favourite and 44-95 as underdog, and 73-55 at home (57% of 128 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DAL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 106-55 | 83-38-1 |
| As underdog | 36-63-1 | 44-95 |
| At home | 75-55-1 | 73-55 |
| On the road | 67-64 | 54-79-1 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →