NFL
New York Jets
2-6
Kansas City Chiefs
5-2
Win Probability
The New York Jets travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs, a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Patrick Mahomes is projected for 250 passing yards while Kenneth Walker III could reach 115 yards from scrimmage, giving Kansas City multiple vectors to attack. The game hinges on New York's ability to generate offense: Geno Smith is forecast for just 210 passing yards, and the Jets' ground game projects to struggle significantly. On games shaped this way historically, the favored side won 77% of the time across a large sample. Kansas City would need to execute poorly and the Jets' defense would need to create consistent pressure for the visitor to pull off an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H NYJ ML
NYJ +290
+3.8% EV
25.7% leads · push 7.3%
FanDuel ↗
1H KC ML
KC -300
-1.7% EV
67.0% leads · push 7.3%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | KC | EV | NYJ | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9.5 | -115 | -8.0% | -105 | +3.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -120 | -8.8% | +100 | +5.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -9.5 | -112 | -7.5% | -105 | +3.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -9.5 | -114 | -7.9% | -104 | +4.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -10 | -110 | -8.7% | -110 | +4.3% |
| Book | KC | EV | NYJ | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -550 | -4.4% | +410 | +7.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -560 | -4.5% | +420 | +8.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -525 | -4.0% | +400 | +6.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -500 | -3.7% | +380 | +3.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -600 | -5.0% | +400 | +6.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | -8.0% | -115 | +3.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48 | -108 | -7.1% | -112 | +2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48 | -112 | -7.9% | -108 | +3.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 47.5 | -115 | -7.1% | -105 | +2.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.1%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas City Chiefs 77% to beat New York Jets (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas City Chiefs the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas City Chiefs a 77% chance of beating New York Jets, against 22% for New York Jets. Kansas City Chiefs are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New York Jets (2-6 so far) project to finish 5.4–11.6 and make the playoffs in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-2 so far) project to finish 10.7–6.3 and make the playoffs in 81% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 5.4–11.6 | 1% | 4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.7–6.3 | 41% | 81% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New York Jets have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Kansas City Chiefs have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2011: New York Jets 2, Kansas City Chiefs 4. The last meeting, on Oct 1, 2023, finished Kansas City Chiefs 23, New York Jets 20.
New York Jets are 41-36 as favourite and 46-129 as underdog, and 34-92 on the road (27% of 126 games, 2011–2026).
Kansas City Chiefs are 146-53 as favourite and 34-45 as underdog, and 98-45 at home (69% of 143 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NYJ | KC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 41-36 | 146-53 |
| As underdog | 46-129 | 34-45 |
| At home | 54-73 | 98-45 |
| On the road | 34-92 | 82-53 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →