Denver Broncos
6-2
Carolina Panthers
3-4
Win Probability
Denver Broncos travel to Carolina Panthers in a matchup where the simulation favors the visiting side. Bo Nix projects for 220 passing yards while Bryce Young is expected around 230, a marginal difference that masks where this game turns: Carolina's run game. Chuba Hubbard is projected for 90 yards from scrimmage against Jonah Coleman at 80, a small gap that will determine field position and third-down efficiency. On similar win probabilities across 1,552 graded games, AccuScore's favored side won 56% of the time. For Carolina to pull the upset, its secondary receivers—Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker combined for 110 projected yards—would need to step up beyond their simulation estimates.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H DEN ML
DEN -137
-2.1% EV
50.5% leads · push 8.4%
betPARX ↗
1H CAR ML
CAR +120
-0.6% EV
41.1% leads · push 8.4%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
DEN -1.5 +100
-1.9% EV
48.1% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Spread
CAR +1.5 -115
-1.5% EV
51.9% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 22.5 -110
+1.5% EV
54.0% over
Fanatics ↗
1H Total
U 22.5 -110
-6.1% EV
46.0% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | CAR | EV | DEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +3 | -120 | -1.8% | +100 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | +100 | -1.9% | -115 | -1.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +2.5 | +100 | -1.9% | -118 | -2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +2.5 | -101 | -2.1% | -119 | -2.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +3 | -120 | -1.8% | +100 | -2.2% |
| Book | CAR | EV | DEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +130 | -1.6% | -155 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +120 | -3.7% | -142 | -1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +125 | -2.6% | -145 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | +127 | -2.2% | -150 | -2.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +125 | -2.6% | -145 | -1.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 44.5 | -108 | +0.2% | -112 | -4.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 44.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 44.5 | -108 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 44.5 | -104 | +1.1% | -115 | -5.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 44.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NFL
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Broncos 57% to beat Carolina Panthers (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Broncos the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Carolina Panthers a 42% chance of beating Denver Broncos, against 57% for Denver Broncos. Carolina Panthers are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Denver Broncos (6-2 so far) project to finish 11.3–5.7 and make the playoffs in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Carolina Panthers (3-4 so far) project to finish 7.4–9.6 and make the playoffs in 31% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 11.3–5.7 | 54% | 85% |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.4–9.6 | 28% | 31% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Denver Broncos have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Carolina Panthers have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2012: Denver Broncos 5, Carolina Panthers 1. The last meeting, on Oct 27, 2024, finished Carolina Panthers 14, Denver Broncos 28.
Denver Broncos are 103-43 as favourite and 44-75 as underdog, and 59-69 on the road (46% of 128 games, 2011–2026).
Carolina Panthers are 59-45 as favourite and 54-101-1 as underdog, and 64-66 at home (49% of 130 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DEN | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 103-43 | 59-45 |
| As underdog | 44-75 | 54-101-1 |
| At home | 88-50 | 64-66 |
| On the road | 59-69 | 49-80-1 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →