NFL • Sun, Nov 8, 21:25
San Francisco 49ers host Las Vegas Raiders in a matchup where the simulation favours the home side decisively. Both offences project to move the ball through the air, with Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins each expected to exceed 250 passing yards, but the 49ers' ground game shapes the outcome: Christian McCaffrey is projected for 105 yards from scrimmage against Ashton Jeanty's 70. AccuScore's model has favoured sides this strongly in 896 graded games, winning 77 percent of them.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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San Francisco 49ers (6-1 so far) project to finish 12.6–4.4 and make the playoffs in 92% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 12.6–4.4 | 75% | 92% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
NFL
AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco 49ers 75% to beat Las Vegas Raiders (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco 49ers the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Francisco 49ers a 75% chance of beating Las Vegas Raiders, against 25% for Las Vegas Raiders. San Francisco 49ers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Las Vegas Raiders and San Francisco 49ers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Las Vegas Raiders have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
San Francisco 49ers have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2014: Las Vegas Raiders 1, San Francisco 49ers 2. The last meeting, on Jan 1, 2023, finished San Francisco 49ers 37, Las Vegas Raiders 34.
Las Vegas Raiders are 40-32 as favourite and 57-125 as underdog, and 43-85 on the road (34% of 128 games, 2011–2026).
San Francisco 49ers are 115-52-1 as favourite and 36-69 as underdog, and 79-57-1 at home (58% of 137 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LV | SF |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 40-32 | 115-52-1 |
| As underdog | 57-125 | 36-69 |
| At home | 55-72 | 79-57-1 |
| On the road | 43-85 | 73-64 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →