NFL • Sun, Nov 8, 21:25
The Green Bay Packers visit the New England Patriots in a matchup between evenly matched 5-3 teams, with the simulation favoring the home side. New England's defence will aim to disrupt Jordan Love, projected for 260 passing yards, while Green Bay's secondary faces Drake Maye and a Patriots offence built around Rhamondre Stevenson's projected 80 yards from scrimmage. The game hinges on whether Green Bay can establish balance: Josh Jacobs is projected for 70 yards, but if the Packers fall behind early, they may lean too heavily on Love's arm.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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Green Bay Packers (5-3 so far) project to finish 9.4–7.6 and make the playoffs in 47% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New England Patriots (5-3 so far) project to finish 10.1–6.9 and make the playoffs in 73% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 9.4–7.6 | 9% | 47% |
| New England Patriots | 10.1–6.9 | 25% | 73% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
NFL
AccuScore's simulation makes New England Patriots 63% to beat Green Bay Packers (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New England Patriots the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New England Patriots a 63% chance of beating Green Bay Packers, against 36% for Green Bay Packers. New England Patriots are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Green Bay Packers have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
New England Patriots have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2014: Green Bay Packers 2, New England Patriots 1. The last meeting, on Oct 2, 2022, finished New England Patriots 24, Green Bay Packers 27.
Green Bay Packers are 136-53-3 as favourite and 32-49 as underdog, and 70-67-1 on the road (51% of 138 games, 2011–2026).
New England Patriots are 152-50 as favourite and 27-49 as underdog, and 100-45 at home (69% of 145 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | GB | NE |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 136-53-3 | 152-50 |
| As underdog | 32-49 | 27-49 |
| At home | 98-35-2 | 100-45 |
| On the road | 70-67-1 | 80-54 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →