NFL • Tue, Nov 10, 01:15
Two evenly matched 6-1 teams meet in Minnesota, with the simulation slightly favoring the visiting Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen projects for 230 passing yards against a Vikings defense that will ask its own quarterback Kyler Murray to match that output with 220 yards through the air. The game hinges on ground game production: James Cook is projected at 95 yards from scrimmage against Justin Jefferson at 70 receiving yards, a gap that reflects where the simulation sees the Bills gaining their margin.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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NFL
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Bills 56% to beat Minnesota Vikings (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Bills the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota Vikings a 44% chance of beating Buffalo Bills, against 56% for Buffalo Bills. Minnesota Vikings are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Buffalo Bills (6-1 so far) project to finish 12.5–4.5 and make the playoffs in 94% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Minnesota Vikings (6-1 so far) project to finish 11.2–5.8 and make the playoffs in 78% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 12.5–4.5 | 72% | 94% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 11.2–5.8 | 30% | 78% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Minnesota Vikings have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2014: Buffalo Bills 2, Minnesota Vikings 1. The last meeting, on Nov 13, 2022, finished Minnesota Vikings 33, Buffalo Bills 30.
Buffalo Bills are 107-42 as favourite and 46-71 as underdog, and 61-71 on the road (46% of 132 games, 2011–2026).
Minnesota Vikings are 94-43 as favourite and 45-73-2 as underdog, and 81-47 at home (63% of 128 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BUF | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 107-42 | 94-43 |
| As underdog | 46-71 | 45-73-2 |
| At home | 93-43 | 81-47 |
| On the road | 61-71 | 60-70-2 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →