NFL • Sun, Nov 15, 14:30
When the New England Patriots visit the Detroit Lions, AccuScore's simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Across 50,000 simulations, the model projects a closely contested game that hinges on offensive execution in the red zone—the projected totals suggest both defenses will keep this tight. For the Patriots to pull off the upset, they would need to force Detroit into mistakes and convert their own scoring opportunities at a higher rate than the model expects.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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NFL
AccuScore's simulation makes Detroit Lions 54% to beat New England Patriots (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Detroit Lions the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Detroit Lions a 54% chance of beating New England Patriots, against 46% for New England Patriots. Detroit Lions are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New England Patriots (5-4 so far) project to finish 9.0–8.0 and make the playoffs in 58% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Detroit Lions (6-2 so far) project to finish 10.9–6.1 and make the playoffs in 71% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 9.0–8.0 | 17% | 58% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.9–6.1 | 25% | 71% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How New England Patriots and Detroit Lions come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New England Patriots have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Detroit Lions have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2014: New England Patriots 2, Detroit Lions 1. The last meeting, on Oct 9, 2022, finished Detroit Lions 0, New England Patriots 29.
New England Patriots are 152-51 as favourite and 27-49 as underdog, and 80-54 on the road (60% of 134 games, 2011–2026).
Detroit Lions are 89-36-1 as favourite and 36-94-1 as underdog, and 70-59 at home (54% of 129 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NE | DET |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 152-51 | 89-36-1 |
| As underdog | 27-49 | 36-94-1 |
| At home | 100-46 | 70-59 |
| On the road | 80-54 | 57-72-2 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →