NFL
Miami Dolphins
1-7
Indianapolis Colts
2-7
Win Probability
The Indianapolis Colts host the Miami Dolphins in a matchup between two struggling teams where the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Daniel Jones projects for 230 passing yards for Indianapolis, while Miami's Malik Willis is expected to manage 190, a gap that could prove decisive in a low-scoring affair. Jonathan Taylor's projected 75 yards from scrimmage will be critical to keeping the Colts' offense on schedule against a visiting defense built around Ollie Gordon II and the Miami ground game. AccuScore has favored sides in this win-probability range across 1,555 graded games, and those sides won 56% of the time. For Miami to steal this one, Willis would need to exceed his projection significantly while limiting turnovers in Indianapolis's controlled environment.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIA ML
MIA +115
-0.0% EV
42.5% leads · push 8.6%
Fanatics ↗
1H IND ML
IND -130
-2.4% EV
48.9% leads · push 8.6%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MIA +0.5 -105
-0.1% EV
51.1% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
IND -0.5 -109
-3.1% EV
48.9% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Total
O 19.5 -125
+1.6% EV
57.3% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 19.5 +110
-5.2% EV
42.7% under
FanDuel ↗
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | IND | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2.5 | -108 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2.5 | -107 | -0.9% | -113 | -3.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -115 | -2.5% | -105 | -2.0% |
| Book | IND | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -135 | -1.0% | +114 | -3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -136 | -1.2% | +116 | -3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -140 | -1.7% | +115 | -3.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -137 | -1.3% | +116 | -3.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -140 | -1.7% | +120 | -2.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 40.5 | -108 | +0.6% | -112 | -5.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 40.5 | -115 | -0.9% | -105 | -3.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 40.5 | -110 | +0.1% | -108 | -4.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 40.5 | -110 | +0.1% | -109 | -4.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 40.5 | -110 | +0.1% | -110 | -4.7% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Indianapolis Colts 56% to beat Miami Dolphins (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Indianapolis Colts the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indianapolis Colts a 56% chance of beating Miami Dolphins, against 43% for Miami Dolphins. Indianapolis Colts are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Miami Dolphins (1-7 so far) project to finish 4.7–12.3 and make the playoffs in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Indianapolis Colts (2-7 so far) project to finish 5.5–11.5 and make the playoffs in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 4.7–12.3 | 1% | 3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 5.5–11.5 | 1% | 3% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Miami Dolphins have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Indianapolis Colts have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2012: Miami Dolphins 2, Indianapolis Colts 6. The last meeting, on Sep 7, 2025, finished Miami Dolphins 8, Indianapolis Colts 33.
Miami Dolphins are 63-30 as favourite and 54-108 as underdog, and 45-84 on the road (35% of 129 games, 2011–2026).
Indianapolis Colts are 83-38-1 as favourite and 44-96 as underdog, and 73-56 at home (57% of 129 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MIA | IND |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 63-30 | 83-38-1 |
| As underdog | 54-108 | 44-96 |
| At home | 73-54 | 73-56 |
| On the road | 45-84 | 54-79-1 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →