NFL
Buffalo Bills
6-1
New York Jets
2-7
Win Probability
Buffalo Bills travel to New York Jets in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the visitors. Across 899 games where the model leaned this decisively, the favored side won 78% of the time. The Jets' secondary will face a test from Bills receivers, while containing the New York offense remains Buffalo's primary task. Jets cornerback has a 38% chance of exceeding two pass breakups, and limiting big plays will define whether New York keeps this competitive. For the Jets to pull the upset, they would need to force multiple turnovers and sustain drives that Buffalo cannot match.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H BUF ML
BUF -320
-4.4% EV
64.1% leads · push 7.1%
Fanatics ↗
1H NYJ ML
NYJ +250
+3.9% EV
28.8% leads · push 7.1%
Fanatics ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
BUF -6.5 +100
-5.8% EV
44.2% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
NYJ +6.5 -120
+1.1% EV
55.8% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -110
-1.8% EV
50.5% over
Fanatics ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 -120
-4.6% EV
49.5% under
Fanatics ↗
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | NYJ | EV | BUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +7.5 | -115 | +1.2% | -105 | -5.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +7.5 | -115 | +1.2% | -105 | -5.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +7.5 | -225 | -10.4% | -141 | -11.4% |
| Book | NYJ | EV | BUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +340 | +4.3% | -430 | -3.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +325 | +2.5% | -425 | -3.7% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +351 | +5.7% | -430 | -3.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +381 | +9.4% | -480 | -4.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -105 | -1.0% | -115 | -3.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 51 | -110 | +0.1% | -110 | -4.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 50.5 | -5429 | -22.2% | -160 | -13.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.8%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Bills 75% to beat New York Jets (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Bills the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New York Jets a 25% chance of beating Buffalo Bills, against 75% for Buffalo Bills. New York Jets are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Buffalo Bills (6-1 so far) project to finish 12.3–4.7 and make the playoffs in 94% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New York Jets (2-7 so far) project to finish 4.6–12.4 and make the playoffs in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 12.3–4.7 | 82% | 94% |
| New York Jets | 4.6–12.4 | <1% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Buffalo Bills and New York Jets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
New York Jets have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 30 times since 2011: Buffalo Bills 19, New York Jets 11. The last meeting, on Jan 4, 2026, finished New York Jets 8, Buffalo Bills 35.
Buffalo Bills are 107-42 as favourite and 46-71 as underdog, and 61-71 on the road (46% of 132 games, 2011–2026).
New York Jets are 41-36 as favourite and 46-130 as underdog, and 54-73 at home (43% of 127 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BUF | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 107-42 | 41-36 |
| As underdog | 46-71 | 46-130 |
| At home | 93-43 | 54-73 |
| On the road | 61-71 | 34-93 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →