NFL
Seattle Seahawks
5-4
Las Vegas Raiders
4-5
Win Probability
Seattle Seahawks travel to Las Vegas Raiders in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the visitors. The model has graded similar strength-of-lean games at 64% accuracy across 1,454 past contests, a benchmark this one meets. Las Vegas' defence will determine whether it can keep pace; across the eight structurally similar games in AccuScore's record, the favored side won six. For the Raiders to pull the upset, they would need to suppress Seattle's scoring—the model projects their hosts to fall short by several points in the projected total. A defensive stand would be required to shift what the numbers currently suggest.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H SEA ML
SEA -155
-0.4% EV
55.5% leads · push 7.8%
Fanatics ↗
1H LV ML
LV +133
-3.4% EV
36.7% leads · push 7.8%
Caesars ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | LV | EV | SEA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +3.5 | -118 | -3.4% | -102 | -1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +3.5 | -115 | -2.8% | -105 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +3.5 | -118 | -3.4% | -102 | -1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | +3.5 | -116 | -3.0% | -102 | -1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +3.5 | -120 | -3.7% | +100 | -0.5% |
| Book | LV | EV | SEA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +145 | -6.4% | -175 | +0.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +152 | -5.1% | -180 | -0.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +150 | -5.5% | -185 | -0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +150 | -5.5% | -179 | -0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +160 | -3.7% | -190 | -1.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 43.5 | -108 | -0.9% | -112 | -3.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 43.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 43.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -112 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 43.5 | -104 | +0.0% | -115 | -4.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 43.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 64.0%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Seattle Seahawks 64% to beat Las Vegas Raiders (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Seattle Seahawks the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Las Vegas Raiders a 36% chance of beating Seattle Seahawks, against 64% for Seattle Seahawks. Las Vegas Raiders are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Seattle Seahawks (5-4 so far) project to finish 9.9–7.1 and make the playoffs in 54% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 9.9–7.1 | 13% | 54% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Seattle Seahawks have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Las Vegas Raiders have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2014: Seattle Seahawks 2, Las Vegas Raiders 1. The last meeting, on Nov 27, 2022, finished Las Vegas Raiders 40, Seattle Seahawks 34.
Seattle Seahawks are 130-47 as favourite and 41-54-1 as underdog, and 79-57-1 on the road (58% of 137 games, 2011–2026).
Las Vegas Raiders are 40-32 as favourite and 57-126 as underdog, and 55-72 at home (43% of 127 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SEA | LV |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 130-47 | 40-32 |
| As underdog | 41-54-1 | 57-126 |
| At home | 92-44 | 55-72 |
| On the road | 79-57-1 | 43-86 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →