Brentford
Aston Villa
Win Probability
Moneyline
BRE
+167
40.0% win prob
EV +3.4%
1xBet
Draw
Draw
+260
28% prob
EV -0.3%
BetVictor
Moneyline
AVL
+175
32.4% win prob
EV -5.4%
1xBet
Brentford travels to Villa Park in a fixture where the simulation slightly favours the visitors. The model projects a tight contest built on Brentford's attacking threat against Aston Villa's home setup, with the combined score clearing the market total in 56% of simulations. AccuScore's record on similarly shaped away-side leans across 761 games stands at 56%, a thin margin that reflects how often these close calls break either way. For Aston Villa to overturn the lean, they would need to suppress Brentford's output and convert their own chances with clinical efficiency—a reversal of what the 10,000 simulations suggest is more likely.
| Book | BRE | EV | Draw | EV | AVL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +161 | +2.2% | +259 | -0.5% | +170 | -6.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | +160 | +2.0% | +250 | -1.7% | +170 | -6.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | +160 | +2.0% | +250 | -1.7% | +162 | -7.6% |
| William Hill ↗ | +150 | +0.0% | +230 | -4.5% | +160 | -7.9% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +155 | +1.0% | +260 | -0.3% | +160 | -7.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | +118 | -0.1% | -135 | -2.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -149 | -1.6% | +115 | -4.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -137 | +0.1% | +110 | -5.8% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3 | +105 | -2.4% | -152 | -3.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3 | +108 | -1.9% | -147 | -3.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 40.0%
EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Brentford 40% to win, Aston Villa 32%, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Brentford the more likely winner at 40%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Aston Villa a 32% chance of beating Brentford, with 40% for Brentford and 28% for a draw. Aston Villa are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Brentford and Aston Villa come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Brentford have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (L-D-D-D-W, most recent first).
Aston Villa have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-L-D-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2017: Brentford 5, Aston Villa 4, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on Jan 31, 2026, finished Brentford 1, Aston Villa 0.