Pittsburgh Pirates
81-78
Detroit Tigers
74-85
Win Probability
Projected score
3.6 – 3.9
This simulation calls Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers a coin-flip, with the home side barely favored. Jackson Jobe projects for 11.0 strikeouts, and whether he can sustain that volume will shape run prevention; on the other side, Spencer Torkelson has a 49% chance to record a hit, making his ability to generate early offense critical. Esmerlyn Valdez carries a 22% home run probability that could swing momentum. AccuScore's model has graded 49% winners on similarly shaped matchups over 6,337 games. The Pirates would need their visiting lineup to overcome Jobe's strikeout potential and catch Detroit's offense in rhythm.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 PIT
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F5 Total
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F5 DET
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| Book | Line | DET | EV | PIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -193 | -23.3% | +158 | +33.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -200 | -23.6% | +164 | +35.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1.5 | -190 | -23.1% | +155 | +32.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +1.5 | -187 | -23.0% | +155 | +32.6% |
| Book | DET | EV | PIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -110 | -2.2% | -109 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -108 | -1.8% | -108 | -1.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -110 | -2.2% | -110 | -2.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -109 | -2.0% | -105 | -1.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 8 | -102 | -12.3% | -118 | +7.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 7.5 | -128 | -12.2% | +104 | +8.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 8 | -102 | -12.3% | -118 | +7.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 7.5 | -119 | -11.0% | +103 | +8.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 57.6%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Detroit Tigers 50% to beat Pittsburgh Pirates (50%). Projected score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.6, Detroit Tigers 3.9.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Detroit Tigers the more likely winner at 50%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Detroit Tigers a 50% chance of beating Pittsburgh Pirates, against 50% for Pittsburgh Pirates. Detroit Tigers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Pittsburgh Pirates 3.6, Detroit Tigers 3.9.