Chicago Cubs
88-71
Boston Red Sox
85-74
Win Probability
Moneyline
CHC
42.2% win prob
Moneyline
BOS
57.8% win prob
Projected score
3.6 – 4.3
The Chicago Cubs travel to Boston Red Sox territory in a matchup where the simulation leans toward the home side. Clay Holmes is projected for 7.0 strikeouts, and Anthony Seigler has a 21% chance to go deep, so run production will hinge on whether Boston's offense can generate enough force early. The Cubs enter as slight underdogs despite their 88-win season. AccuScore's model has returned -3.1% on games shaped like this one over 6,337 graded decisions, though similar matchups have split evenly in recent play. Chicago would need to silence Boston's attack and capitalize on Caleb Durbin's 48% hit probability to pull the upset.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 CHC
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F5 Total
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F5 BOS
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| Book | Line | BOS | EV | CHC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -182 | -17.5% | +158 | +24.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -182 | -17.5% | +150 | +22.6% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +1.5 | -200 | -18.5% | +150 | +22.6% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -182 | -17.5% | +142 | +20.2% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -189 | -17.9% | +150 | +22.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 6.5 | +100 | +9.6% | -115 | -12.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | 6.5 | -110 | +6.9% | -110 | -11.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 6.5 | +100 | +9.6% | -120 | -13.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 6.5 | -105 | +8.2% | -125 | -13.6% |
| Marathon ↗ | 6.5 | -105 | +8.2% | -120 | -13.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 59.6%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Boston Red Sox 58% to beat Chicago Cubs (42%). Projected score: Chicago Cubs 3.6, Boston Red Sox 4.3.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boston Red Sox the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boston Red Sox a 58% chance of beating Chicago Cubs, against 42% for Chicago Cubs. Boston Red Sox are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Chicago Cubs 3.6, Boston Red Sox 4.3.