Chicago Cubs
88-71
1
Boston Red Sox
85-74
0
Pitcher
Alec Gamboa
BOS
1.1 IP, ER, 3 H, K, BB
At Bat
Miguel Amaya
CHC
0-0 today
Win Probability
Projected score
4.3 – 3.9
The Chicago Cubs travel to Boston for a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Clay Holmes is projected for 7.0 strikeouts, a number that will matter if the Red Sox need length from their bullpen; Anthony Seigler has a 19% chance of going deep. The game turns on whether Chicago's lineup can sustain contact against Boston's pitching, with Caleb Durbin projected to record a hit just 46% of the time. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has won 49% of its calls across 15,986 graded matchups in the National League. For Boston to come in, it would need to suppress Chicago's scoring while capitalizing on its own chances.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 CHC
—
F5 Total
—
F5 BOS
—
| Book | Line | BOS | EV | CHC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -169 | -16.5% | +140 | +19.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -172 | -16.7% | +142 | +20.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1.5 | -170 | -16.6% | +140 | +19.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +1.5 | -179 | -17.2% | +155 | +23.8% |
| Book | BOS | EV | CHC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +102 | -2.2% | -123 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +102 | -2.2% | -120 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +100 | -2.7% | -120 | -1.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -101 | -2.9% | -114 | -0.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 6.5 | -112 | +8.3% | -108 | -13.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 6.5 | -110 | +8.8% | -110 | -13.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 6.5 | -110 | +8.8% | -110 | -13.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -105 | +10.1% | -109 | -13.2% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Taylor doubled to left, Suzuki scored.
CHC
0–1
| Batter | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Crow-ArmstrongCF | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | .280 |
| S. SuzukiRF | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | .270 |
| A. BregmanDH | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | .261 |
| T. TaylorLF | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | .277 |
| N. Hoerner2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | .263 |
| M. Shaw3B | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | .236 |
| M. Busch1B | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | .240 |
| D. SwansonSS | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | .216 |
| M. AmayaC | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | .231 |
Venue
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast
NESN | MARQ
Starting Pitchers
Holmes vs Gamboa
Umpires
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 61.6%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Chicago Cubs 53% to beat Boston Red Sox (47%). Projected score: Chicago Cubs 4.3, Boston Red Sox 3.9.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Chicago Cubs the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boston Red Sox a 47% chance of beating Chicago Cubs, against 53% for Chicago Cubs. Boston Red Sox are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Chicago Cubs 4.3, Boston Red Sox 3.9.