Arizona Diamondbacks
86-74
San Diego Padres
89-71
Win Probability
Projected score
3.5 – 3.3
When the Arizona Diamondbacks visit San Diego Padres, the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Walker Buehler's projected strikeouts stand at 10.0, making command the decisive factor in how the game unfolds—if the Padres pitcher reaches that mark, San Diego's chances improve considerably. Ketel Marte carries a 24% chance of a home run, and Tyler Locklear sits at just 37% to record a hit, reflecting how narrow Arizona's offensive paths are. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way stands at 49% over 15,993 National League contests. For San Diego to prevail, it would need to suppress Arizona's power while finding consistent contact against Buehler.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 ARI
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F5 Total
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F5 SD
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| Book | Line | SD | EV | ARI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -210 | -27.6% | +172 | +44.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1.5 | -200 | -27.2% | +165 | +42.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +1.5 | -204 | -27.4% | +169 | +43.6% |
| Book | SD | EV | ARI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -122 | -7.6% | +102 | +3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -120 | -7.3% | +102 | +3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -120 | -7.3% | +100 | +3.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -114 | -6.3% | -101 | +3.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 7.5 | -112 | -15.6% | -107 | +11.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 7.5 | -110 | -15.3% | -110 | +10.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 7.5 | -110 | -15.3% | -110 | +10.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 7.5 | -109 | -15.1% | -109 | +11.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 63.6%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona Diamondbacks 53% to beat San Diego Padres (47%). Projected score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.5, San Diego Padres 3.3.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona Diamondbacks the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Diego Padres a 47% chance of beating Arizona Diamondbacks, against 53% for Arizona Diamondbacks. San Diego Padres are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Arizona Diamondbacks 3.5, San Diego Padres 3.3.