New York Mets
74-87
Washington Nationals
76-85
Win Probability
Projected score
4.0 – 3.9
This matchup between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals shapes up as a coin-flip, with the simulation barely favoring the hosts. The game hinges on run prevention: the projected combined output sits just under four runs per side, and scoring more than that happens in only 37% of simulations. James Wood has a 17% chance to hit a home run in this one game, while Jared Young reaches base in 39% of the simulations run. AccuScore's model has gone 49% on similar home-side coin-flips across 6,341 graded games, a cautionary note for any strong conviction. The Nationals would need to hold the Mets below their projected output to cash, making pitching efficiency the decisive factor.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 NYM
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F5 Total
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F5 WAS
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| Book | Line | WAS | EV | NYM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -186 | -23.9% | +153 | +33.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -182 | -23.7% | +150 | +32.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1.5 | -185 | -23.8% | +150 | +32.5% |
| Book | WAS | EV | NYM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -104 | -1.0% | -112 | -2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 8 | -118 | -11.3% | -102 | +7.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 8.5 | -102 | -12.9% | -120 | +7.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 8.5 | +100 | -12.6% | -120 | +7.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 62.6%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington Nationals 50% to beat New York Mets (50%). Projected score: New York Mets 4.0, Washington Nationals 3.9.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington Nationals the more likely winner at 50%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington Nationals a 50% chance of beating New York Mets, against 50% for New York Mets. Washington Nationals are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects New York Mets 4.0, Washington Nationals 3.9.