Tampa Bay Rays
98-63
Philadelphia Phillies
87-74
Win Probability
Projected score
3.1 – 3.7
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup where the simulation leans toward the home side. Kyle Schwarber has a 24% chance to hit a home run, while Taylor Walls projects to reach base in 48% of plate appearances—a slim margin that reflects how tight this contest should be. Nick Martinez is projected for 6.0 strikeouts, and his ability to limit damage will be crucial for a Rays offense that needs to capitalize on limited opportunities. AccuScore's model has won just 49% of games shaped like this one across 6,341 graded contests. The Phillies would need to fall behind early and the Rays to sustain offensive momentum for Tampa Bay to upset the projection.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 TB
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F5 Total
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F5 PHI
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| Book | Line | PHI | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -217 | -19.9% | +179 | +32.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | +1.5 | -222 | -20.1% | +175 | +30.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -222 | -20.1% | +180 | +32.3% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +1.5 | -222 | -20.1% | +170 | +29.4% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -217 | -19.9% | +168 | +28.8% |
| Book | PHI | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -149 | -0.7% | +124 | -4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -156 | -1.6% | +132 | -2.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -155 | -1.5% | +125 | -3.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 7 | -118 | -10.1% | -102 | +6.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 7.5 | +110 | -10.2% | -134 | +4.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 7 | -125 | -11.0% | +105 | +8.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 52.2%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Philadelphia Phillies 59% to beat Tampa Bay Rays (41%). Projected score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.1, Philadelphia Phillies 3.7.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Philadelphia Phillies the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Philadelphia Phillies a 59% chance of beating Tampa Bay Rays, against 41% for Tampa Bay Rays. Philadelphia Phillies are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Tampa Bay Rays 3.1, Philadelphia Phillies 3.7.