Philadelphia Phillies
88-74
Atlanta Braves
94-68
Win Probability
Moneyline
PHI
38.7% win prob
Moneyline
ATL
61.3% win prob
Projected score
2.8 – 3.5
When the Philadelphia Phillies visit Atlanta Braves, the simulation leans decisively toward the home side. Chris Sale projects for 13.0 strikeouts, a figure that will shape how deep Atlanta's lineup can push runs across; Drake Baldwin has a 21% chance of a home run that could prove decisive in a low-scoring environment. The game turns on run prevention—AccuScore's model expects fewer than four runs combined, and that constraint favours the Braves. On games shaped this way, AccuScore has won 57% of the time over 5,877 graded matchups. For Philadelphia to pull the upset, it would need to break through Sale's strikeout potential and string together the kind of offensive sequence the projections suggest is unlikely.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 PHI
—
F5 Total
—
F5 ATL
—
| Book | Line | ATL | EV | PHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -370 | -23.1% | +279 | +59.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -370 | -23.1% | +260 | +53.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -400 | -23.6% | +262 | +54.4% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +1.5 | -400 | -23.6% | +262 | +54.4% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -417 | -23.8% | +280 | +59.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 5 | -278 | -5.9% | +218 | +6.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | 6.5 | -120 | -9.1% | +100 | +5.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 4.5 | -400 | -7.6% | +280 | +11.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 5.5 | -200 | -7.9% | +140 | +2.6% |
| Marathon ↗ | 5 | -333 | -7.6% | +226 | +8.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.4%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Braves 61% to beat Philadelphia Phillies (39%). Projected score: Philadelphia Phillies 2.8, Atlanta Braves 3.5.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Braves the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Atlanta Braves a 61% chance of beating Philadelphia Phillies, against 39% for Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta Braves are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Philadelphia Phillies 2.8, Atlanta Braves 3.5.