Boston Red Sox
87-75
New York Yankees
93-68
Win Probability
Moneyline
BOS
44.9% win prob
Moneyline
NYY
55.1% win prob
Projected score
3.5 – 3.5
The Boston Red Sox travel to face the New York Yankees in a matchup the simulation favors slightly toward the home side. Payton Tolle projects to strike out 12.0 batters, while Ben Rice has a 24% chance of hitting a home run. The game hinges on whether New York's lineup can capitalize in scoring situations; across eight similar win-probability matchups, the model's favored side won just twice. AccuScore's historical record on games shaped like this one stands at 49% over 6,345 graded games. For Boston to come away with a victory, the Red Sox would need their offense to overcome Tolle's dominant strikeout projection and force New York into mistakes.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 BOS
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F5 Total
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F5 NYY
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| Book | Line | NYY | EV | BOS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -294 | -24.8% | +230 | +52.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -294 | -24.8% | +205 | +45.1% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +1.5 | -312 | -25.1% | +214 | +47.9% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -303 | -25.0% | +215 | +48.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 6.5 | -114 | -3.4% | -102 | -0.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | 6.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 6.5 | -105 | -1.6% | -116 | -3.1% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 6.5 | -115 | -3.6% | -125 | -4.6% |
| 1xBet ↗ | 6.5 | -104 | -1.4% | -104 | -0.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 63.5%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Yankees 55% to beat Boston Red Sox (45%). Projected score: Boston Red Sox 3.5, New York Yankees 3.5.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Yankees the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New York Yankees a 55% chance of beating Boston Red Sox, against 45% for Boston Red Sox. New York Yankees are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Boston Red Sox 3.5, New York Yankees 3.5.