Chicago Cubs
89-73
San Diego Padres
91-71
Win Probability
Moneyline
CHC
55.2% win prob
Moneyline
SD
44.8% win prob
Projected score
4.4 – 3.8
The Chicago Cubs travel to San Diego to face the Padres in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Matthew Boyd projects to 9.0 strikeouts, a key lever in keeping Chicago's offense in check, while Jackson Merrill has a 35% chance of reaching base. The game turns on whether San Diego can generate enough contact; AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one stands at 49% across 16,008 similar decisions. For the Padres to pull the upset at home, they would need to exceed their modest offensive projection and force Chicago into early trouble.
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Chicago Cubs 55% to beat San Diego Padres (45%). Projected score: Chicago Cubs 4.4, San Diego Padres 3.8.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Chicago Cubs the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Diego Padres a 45% chance of beating Chicago Cubs, against 55% for Chicago Cubs. San Diego Padres are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Chicago Cubs 4.4, San Diego Padres 3.8.