New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
Win Probability
Moneyline
RBNY
+233
2.9% win prob
EV -45.2%
Polymarket
Draw
Draw
+338
9% prob
EV -29.6%
Polymarket
Moneyline
NE
-103
87.8% win prob
EV +36.5%
Kalshi
When New York RB travels to New England, the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore's model projects a comfortable victory, with the most likely outcome a 3–0 shutout. Across eight similarly shaped games in the past, the favored side won four times, a record that suggests New England's advantage is real but leaves room for variance. New York RB would need to generate significantly more attacking threat than the projection allows to force a result, since the game's outcome hinges on whether the visitors can convert limited chances into goals.
| Book | RBNY | EV | Draw | EV | NE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +229 | -45.2% | +321 | -30.4% | -103 | +36.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +233 | -45.2% | +338 | -29.6% | -105 | +35.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +106 | +11.0% | -128 | -13.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -303 | +1.9% | +200 | -17.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +102 | +9.8% | -118 | -12.4% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes New England Revolution 88% to win, New York Red Bulls 3%, with a 9% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New England Revolution the more likely winner at 88%, with a 9% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New England Revolution a 88% chance of beating New York Red Bulls, with 3% for New York Red Bulls and 9% for a draw. New England Revolution are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How New York Red Bulls and New England Revolution come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New York Red Bulls have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 17 times since 2017: New York Red Bulls 7, New England Revolution 8, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 28, 2026, finished New England Revolution 0, New York Red Bulls 1.