Orlando City
Chicago Fire
Win Probability
Moneyline
ORL
+333
14.1% win prob
EV -19.5%
Betfair
Draw
Draw
+371
22% prob
EV +2.0%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
CHI
-139
63.8% win prob
EV +4.8%
Betano
Orlando City travels to Chicago Fire in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the hosts. Across 50,000 simulations, Chicago Fire emerges as the clear lean, with the model projecting a low-scoring affair tilted sharply in their direction. The outcome hinges on Orlando City's ability to score; the visitors are projected for under one goal, and they would need to generate chances at a significantly higher rate than the model expects to alter the result. On games shaped like this one—where the home side carries a 60–70% win probability—AccuScore's record stands at 53% over 3,147 graded matchups. For Orlando City to leave with a result, their attack would need to operate well above projection.
| Book | ORL | EV | Draw | EV | CHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +307 | -21.3% | +371 | +2.0% | -147 | +3.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | +333 | -19.5% | +360 | +0.8% | -161 | +1.7% |
| Betano ↗ | +315 | -20.7% | +340 | -1.4% | -139 | +4.8% |
| William Hill ↗ | +300 | -21.8% | +320 | -3.6% | -161 | +1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 4 | +126 | -21.6% | -152 | +12.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -400 | -14.5% | +260 | +27.8% |
| Betano ↗ | 4 | +122 | -21.9% | -143 | +14.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 63.8%
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Chicago Fire 64% to win, Orlando City 14%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Chicago Fire the more likely winner at 64%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Chicago Fire a 64% chance of beating Orlando City, with 14% for Orlando City and 22% for a draw. Chicago Fire are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Orlando City and Chicago Fire come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Orlando City have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-W-D-W-L, most recent first).
Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Orlando City 6, Chicago Fire 7, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on Aug 19, 2026, finished Chicago Fire 2, Orlando City 1.