Sporting KC
Minnesota United
Win Probability
Moneyline
SKC
+546
20.4% win prob
EV +15.9%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+428
22% prob
EV +7.6%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
MIN
-222
57.8% win prob
EV -8.1%
Betano
When Sporting KC travels to Minnesota United, the simulation clearly favors the hosts. The projection turns on whether Minnesota can sustain attacking pressure: a 57% probability that combined goals exceed the market total suggests both defenses will be tested, even as the model leans decisively toward a Minnesota win. AccuScore's record on home-side calls of this strength stands at 45% across 4,104 games—a cautionary note for backing the favorite. For Sporting KC to upset, they would need to limit Minnesota's chances while converting their own at an unusually high rate, a path the 50,000 simulations suggest is unlikely.
| Book | SKC | EV | Draw | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +546 | +15.9% | +428 | +7.6% | -250 | -9.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | +500 | +11.2% | +400 | +4.5% | -250 | -9.5% |
| Betano ↗ | +530 | +14.3% | +390 | +3.4% | -222 | -8.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | +450 | +6.1% | +360 | +0.1% | -250 | -9.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | -112 | +3.6% | -106 | -7.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | -108 | +4.5% | -108 | -8.3% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota United 58% to win, Sporting KC 20%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota United the more likely winner at 58%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota United a 58% chance of beating Sporting KC, with 20% for Sporting KC and 22% for a draw. Minnesota United are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Sporting KC and Minnesota United come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sporting KC have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-L-L-D-L, most recent first).
Minnesota United have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (D-W-D-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 22 times since 2017: Sporting KC 11, Minnesota United 7, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on Jul 22, 2026, finished Minnesota United 1, Sporting KC 2.