San Diego FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
Win Probability
Moneyline
SD
+465
7.8% win prob
EV -28.0%
Polymarket
Draw
Draw
+440
18% prob
EV -1.9%
Kalshi
Moneyline
VAN
-218
74.4% win prob
EV +4.3%
Kalshi
San Diego travels to Vancouver Whitecaps in a matchup the simulation favors decisively toward the hosts. AccuScore projects Vancouver to control play and finish with over two goals, while holding San Diego well below one. On games shaped like this one—where the home side carries a strong lean—the model has gone 3-for-8 in similar past fixtures, a reminder that emphatic home favors do not always land. The decisive factor is whether San Diego can generate any attacking threat; any path to an upset runs through escape-level execution on the road. For the visitors to avoid a heavy defeat, they would need to compress Vancouver's space and convert chances at a rate their recent projection does not support.
| Book | SD | EV | Draw | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +456 | -28.3% | +440 | -1.9% | -218 | +4.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +465 | -28.0% | +434 | -2.5% | -224 | +3.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | -118 | -19.1% | -101 | +16.2% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | -118 | -19.1% | +100 | +16.5% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Vancouver Whitecaps 74% to win, San Diego FC 8%, with a 18% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Vancouver Whitecaps the more likely winner at 74%, with a 18% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 74% chance of beating San Diego FC, with 8% for San Diego FC and 18% for a draw. Vancouver Whitecaps are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How San Diego FC and Vancouver Whitecaps come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Diego FC have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 4 (D-D-D-L-D, most recent first).
Vancouver Whitecaps have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-W-D-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2025: San Diego FC 1, Vancouver Whitecaps 1, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on May 24, 2026, finished Vancouver Whitecaps 4, San Diego FC 2.