Deportivo Alavés
Barcelona
Win Probability
Moneyline
ALA
+3000
11.5% win prob
EV +128.3%
Betfair
Draw
Draw
+900
18% prob
EV +39.5%
bet365
Moneyline
BAR
-625
70.6% win prob
EV -9.1%
Pinnacle
Barcelona hosts Deportivo Alavés in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the hosts. Across 50,000 simulations, Barcelona's attack projects to generate 2.7 goals, with the most likely outcome a 2–1 Barcelona win occurring in 9% of runs. For Deportivo Alavés to upset a heavily favored Barcelona side, the away team would need to suppress that attacking output while converting limited chances into goals. AccuScore's model has called games shaped like this one—70 to 80 percent probability, home side favored—at a 63% hit rate over 2,038 graded matchups. The game hinges on whether Barcelona's offensive projection holds up or whether Deportivo Alavés can force enough disruption to steal a result.
| Book | ALA | EV | Draw | EV | BAR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +2681 | +109.9% | +611 | +13.6% | -625 | -9.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | +3000 | +128.3% | +700 | +21.6% | -1000 | -11.2% |
| Betano ↗ | +1800 | +59.3% | +800 | +30.6% | -769 | -10.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1600 | +47.8% | +900 | +39.5% | -1250 | -11.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | +1800 | +59.3% | +750 | +26.1% | -833 | -10.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 4 | -101 | -7.4% | -114 | +4.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -500 | -6.2% | +300 | +4.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 4.5 | +140 | -10.4% | -167 | +3.6% |
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Barcelona 71% to win, Deportivo Alavés 12%, with a 18% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Barcelona the more likely winner at 71%, with a 18% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Barcelona a 71% chance of beating Deportivo Alavés, with 12% for Deportivo Alavés and 18% for a draw. Barcelona are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Deportivo Alavés and Barcelona come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Deportivo Alavés have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-L-L-D-W, most recent first).
Barcelona have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 15 times since 2017: Deportivo Alavés 1, Barcelona 12, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on May 13, 2026, finished Barcelona 0, Deportivo Alavés 1.