New York Yankees
93-68
Tampa Bay Rays
98-64
Win Probability
Moneyline
NYY
41.1% win prob
Moneyline
TB
58.9% win prob
Projected score
2.1 – 2.5
The New York Yankees visit Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup where the simulation favours the home side. Cam Schlittler projects to strike out 10.0, and Junior Caminero has a 17% chance to go deep—if either materializes, it could tip a razor-thin scoring margin. Ryan McMahon reaches base in half the simulated outcomes, but that 50% hit probability underscores how evenly matched run production is expected to be. AccuScore's record on home-side leans in this range stands at 49% across 6350 graded games. For New York to pull the upset, it will need McMahon's bat to come alive and silence Schlittler's strikeout potential.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 NYY
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F5 Total
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F5 TB
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| Book | Line | TB | EV | NYY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -238 | -18.4% | +192 | +31.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -250 | -18.9% | +185 | +29.2% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -256 | -19.1% | +181 | +28.0% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +1.5 | -256 | -19.1% | +181 | +28.0% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -238 | -18.4% | +170 | +25.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 7 | -110 | -30.5% | -104 | +28.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | 6.5 | -133 | -29.0% | +110 | +29.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 7 | -105 | -30.1% | -116 | +24.5% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 7.5 | +110 | -32.6% | -161 | +17.7% |
| Marathon ↗ | 7 | -111 | -30.6% | -116 | +24.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 38.6%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays 59% to beat New York Yankees (41%). Projected score: New York Yankees 2.1, Tampa Bay Rays 2.5.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Rays a 59% chance of beating New York Yankees, against 41% for New York Yankees. Tampa Bay Rays are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects New York Yankees 2.1, Tampa Bay Rays 2.5.