Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
San Diego Padres
91-71
Win Probability
Moneyline
MIL
52.1% win prob
Moneyline
SD
47.9% win prob
Projected score
3.2 – 2.9
The Milwaukee Brewers travel to face the San Diego Padres in a coin-flip matchup that the simulation leans barely toward Milwaukee. Jackson Merrill has only a 33% chance to record a hit, a constraint that could prove decisive in a game where runs will be at a premium. The model projects a combined score near the break-even point, meaning the Padres' ability to generate offense becomes the central question. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way stands at 49% over more than 16,000 graded contests in the National League. San Diego would need to overcome that structural disadvantage in a close game where every baserunner carries outsize weight.
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Milwaukee Brewers 52% to beat San Diego Padres (48%). Projected score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.2, San Diego Padres 2.9.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Milwaukee Brewers the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Diego Padres a 48% chance of beating Milwaukee Brewers, against 52% for Milwaukee Brewers. San Diego Padres are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Milwaukee Brewers 3.2, San Diego Padres 2.9.