Toronto FC
Atlanta Utd
Win Probability
Moneyline
TOR
+240
32.4% win prob
EV +5.1%
Kalshi
Draw
Draw
+321
28% prob
EV +9.4%
Kalshi
Moneyline
ATL
+101
39.4% win prob
EV -10.4%
Kalshi
Toronto travels to Atlanta United in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the hosts. The projected combined score sits just above 2.5 goals, with a draw the second-likeliest outcome at 13% of simulations. On games shaped like this one—away sides with 32% win probability—AccuScore's model has returned 4.5% over 769 graded contests. For Toronto to upset Atlanta, they will need to finish the chances that come their way; the difference between the sides in this simulation is thin enough that clinical finishing tips the balance.
| Book | TOR | EV | Draw | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +240 | +5.1% | +321 | +9.4% | +101 | -10.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +222 | +2.2% | +310 | +7.8% | -101 | -10.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +113 | -22.8% | -135 | +14.8% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +115 | -22.6% | -133 | +15.2% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Utd 39% to win, Toronto FC 32%, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Utd the more likely winner at 39%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Atlanta Utd a 39% chance of beating Toronto FC, with 32% for Toronto FC and 28% for a draw. Atlanta Utd are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Toronto FC and Atlanta Utd come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toronto FC have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-L-W-D-W, most recent first).
Atlanta Utd have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2017: Toronto FC 3, Atlanta Utd 4, 6 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 25, 2026, finished Atlanta Utd 2, Toronto FC 1.