Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers
Win Probability
Moneyline
HOU
+288
38.0% win prob
EV +23.7%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+300
25% prob
EV -0.6%
Betfair
Moneyline
POR
-110
37.3% win prob
EV -14.4%
Betano
When Houston Dynamo travels to Portland Timbers, the simulation sees a coin-flip: the Dynamo lean slightly in the model's favour, but only barely. Both teams project to score 1.8 goals, with a draw the most likely single outcome at 9 percent of simulations. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one—away sides with roughly 38 percent win probability—stands at 56 percent over 769 graded games. The game hinges on whether either side can break through and avoid the draw that the model sees most often. For Portland to escape that outcome and win, they will need to convert their chances at a higher rate than the simulation expects.
| Book | HOU | EV | Draw | EV | POR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +288 | +23.7% | +296 | -1.1% | -120 | -15.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | +280 | +22.2% | +300 | -0.6% | -125 | -16.4% |
| Betano ↗ | +265 | +19.4% | +290 | -1.8% | -110 | -14.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | +260 | +18.4% | +260 | -5.5% | -118 | -15.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -122 | +4.6% | +101 | -8.8% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -105 | +7.8% | -110 | -10.3% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Dynamo 38% to win, Portland Timbers 37%, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Dynamo the more likely winner at 38%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Portland Timbers a 37% chance of beating Houston Dynamo, with 38% for Houston Dynamo and 25% for a draw. Portland Timbers are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Houston Dynamo and Portland Timbers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Houston Dynamo have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 4 (W-D-D-D-D, most recent first).
Portland Timbers have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-W-D-L-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 19 times since 2017: Houston Dynamo 7, Portland Timbers 6, 6 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 15, 2026, finished Portland Timbers 2, Houston Dynamo 3.