Atlanta Braves
94-68
Los Angeles Dodgers
100-62
Win Probability
Moneyline
ATL
41.0% win prob
Moneyline
LAD
59.0% win prob
Projected score
2.6 – 3.1
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Max Muncy projects to record a hit in 47% of simulations, while Shohei Ohtani has a 15% chance at a home run in this single contest. The game hinges on whether Atlanta's offence can generate enough run support on the road to overcome Los Angeles' advantage, but AccuScore's record on games shaped this way—winning just 49% over more than 6,000 graded decisions—suggests caution about backing the favoured side. For the Braves to come through, they would need to exceed their baseline offensive output against a Los Angeles team the model has positioned as the likely winner.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 ATL
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F5 Total
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F5 LAD
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| Book | Line | LAD | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -294 | -21.2% | +226 | +42.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -286 | -21.0% | +202 | +36.0% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -303 | -21.4% | +210 | +38.3% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +1.5 | -303 | -21.4% | +210 | +38.3% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -278 | -20.7% | +200 | +35.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 6.5 | -139 | -16.6% | +118 | +16.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 7.5 | +110 | -20.7% | -133 | +13.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 6.5 | -152 | -17.8% | +110 | +14.2% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 6.5 | -149 | -17.5% | +105 | +12.6% |
| Marathon ↗ | 6.5 | -143 | -16.9% | +113 | +15.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 72.1%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Dodgers 59% to beat Atlanta Braves (41%). Projected score: Atlanta Braves 2.6, Los Angeles Dodgers 3.1.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Dodgers the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Los Angeles Dodgers a 59% chance of beating Atlanta Braves, against 41% for Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles Dodgers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Atlanta Braves 2.6, Los Angeles Dodgers 3.1.