Sporting
Shakhtar Donetsk
Win Probability
Shakhtar Donetsk hosts Sporting in a Champions League fixture where the simulation slightly favors the home side. Over 50,000 simulations, the model projects a narrow margin, with the most likely scoreline occurring in 8% of outcomes. Goals will decide this: the combined total has a 59% chance of clearing the market's line, and the game turns on whether either team's attack can sustain pressure in transition. On similar matchups where the underdog had 35–40% win probability, AccuScore's historical record stands at 46% over 1,282 graded games. For Sporting to emerge with a result, they would need to convert their chances on the road while limiting Shakhtar's offensive rhythm.
| Book | Line | SHA | EV | SPO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | SHA | EV | SPO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +254 | +27.9% | -108 | -16.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | +260 | +29.2% | -118 | -17.8% |
| Betano ↗ | +270 | +31.4% | -105 | -15.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +270 | +31.4% | -118 | -17.8% |
| William Hill ↗ | +250 | +27.0% | -110 | -16.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +153 | +24.6% | — | — |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -200 | +8.4% | +140 | -23.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +155 | +25.2% | -182 | -18.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +150 | +23.7% | -189 | -18.6% |
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Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Shakhtar Donetsk 44% to win, Sporting 35%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Shakhtar Donetsk the more likely winner at 44%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 44% chance of beating Sporting, with 35% for Sporting and 21% for a draw. Shakhtar Donetsk are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Sporting and Shakhtar Donetsk come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).