Napoli
FC Porto
Win Probability
Moneyline
NAP
18.3% win prob
Moneyline
FC
59.5% win prob
Napoli travels to face Porto in a Champions League fixture where the simulation decisively favours the hosts. AccuScore's model has backed Porto's side in similar matchups 45% of the time over more than 4,000 graded games, a cautionary record that underscores how often even clear home-team advantages prove illusory. What this game turns on is whether Napoli can score; the projected outcome hinges on Porto's ability to limit the visitors while converting their own chances into goals. For Napoli to upset that outcome, they would need to break through Porto's attack while keeping the hosts to a single goal or fewer.
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Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes FC Porto 60% to win, Napoli 18%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes FC Porto the more likely winner at 60%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives FC Porto a 60% chance of beating Napoli, with 18% for Napoli and 22% for a draw. FC Porto are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Napoli and FC Porto come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.