Udinese
Venezia
Win Probability
Moneyline
UDI
+222
54.6% win prob
EV +37.9%
Polymarket
Draw
Draw
+273
26% prob
EV -0.8%
Kalshi
Moneyline
VEN
+111
19.0% win prob
EV -30.0%
Polymarket
Udinese travels to Venezia with a clear simulation lean in this Serie A fixture. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with a 1–0 Udinese win appearing in 13 percent of simulations. On games shaped like this one—away sides favored in the 55-percent range—AccuScore's model has won 74 percent of the time across 278 graded matchups. For Venezia to pull off the upset at home, they would need to suppress Udinese's attacking threat and capitalize on set pieces or transitions where they can break through the visiting defense.
| Book | UDI | EV | Draw | EV | VEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +217 | +36.5% | +273 | -0.8% | +109 | -30.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +222 | +37.9% | +271 | -1.0% | +111 | -30.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | +116 | -11.6% | -141 | +6.0% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -167 | -12.3% | +120 | +8.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | +118 | -11.4% | -139 | +6.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -137 | -9.2% | +110 | +5.5% |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Udinese 55% to win, Venezia 19%, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Udinese the more likely winner at 55%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Venezia a 19% chance of beating Udinese, with 55% for Udinese and 26% for a draw. Venezia are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Udinese and Venezia come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Udinese have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-D-L-L-L, most recent first).
Venezia have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Udinese 3, Venezia 1. The last meeting, on Feb 1, 2025, finished Venezia 2, Udinese 3.