Lecce
Torino
Win Probability
Moneyline
LEC
+351
3.5% win prob
EV -42.1%
Kalshi
Draw
Draw
+271
13% prob
EV -26.8%
Polymarket
Moneyline
TOR
-123
84.0% win prob
EV +26.1%
Polymarket
Torino hosts Lecce in a fixture where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The game turns on whether Lecce can generate enough attacking threat to stay competitive; the model projects a low-scoring outcome heavily tilted toward Torino's advantage. On games shaped this way—where the home team carries an 80–90% win probability—AccuScore's picks have won 72% of the time across 1,228 graded contests. For Lecce to surprise, they would need to penetrate Torino's setup early and force the hosts into a more open, chaotic game than the simulation anticipates.
| Book | LEC | EV | Draw | EV | TOR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +351 | -42.1% | +266 | -27.1% | -126 | +25.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +338 | -42.3% | +271 | -26.8% | -123 | +26.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | +104 | +11.3% | -127 | -14.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | +100 | +10.1% | -137 | -15.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 2.5 | +110 | +13.1% | -128 | -14.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | +110 | +13.1% | -137 | -15.5% |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Torino 84% to win, Lecce 4%, with a 13% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Torino the more likely winner at 84%, with a 13% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Torino a 84% chance of beating Lecce, with 4% for Lecce and 13% for a draw. Torino are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Lecce and Torino come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 10 times since 2019: Lecce 4, Torino 5, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 1, 2026, finished Lecce 0, Torino 1.