Sassuolo
AS Roma
Win Probability
Moneyline
SAS
+698
18.4% win prob
EV +23.4%
Polymarket
Draw
Draw
+500
22% prob
EV +17.2%
Polymarket
Moneyline
ROM
-300
59.2% win prob
EV -10.5%
Polymarket
Roma hosts Sassuolo in a Serie A fixture where the model decisively favours the home side. The simulation projects a low-scoring game centred on Roma's attacking threat, with the decisive factor being whether Sassuolo can adequately limit chances in transition. Across eight comparable matchups with similar win-probability shapes, the favoured side won five times. For Sassuolo to upset Roma, it would need to tighten its defensive shape and convert its limited attacking opportunities at a rate well above the simulation's expectation.
| Book | SAS | EV | Draw | EV | ROM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +685 | +22.2% | +490 | +16.1% | -306 | -10.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +698 | +23.4% | +500 | +17.2% | -300 | -10.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +116 | -2.5% | -143 | -2.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -250 | -3.9% | +175 | -3.0% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -139 | -1.3% | +118 | -1.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +110 | -3.9% | -137 | -1.5% |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes AS Roma 59% to win, Sassuolo 18%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes AS Roma the more likely winner at 59%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives AS Roma a 59% chance of beating Sassuolo, with 18% for Sassuolo and 22% for a draw. AS Roma are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Sassuolo and AS Roma come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sassuolo have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-L-L-D-W, most recent first).
AS Roma have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-W-D-W-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 22 times since 2014: Sassuolo 2, AS Roma 12, 8 drawn. The last meeting, on Jan 10, 2026, finished Sassuolo 0, AS Roma 2.