Vancouver Whitecaps
Montreal
Win Probability
Moneyline
VAN
-143
43.5% win prob
EV -13.0%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+341
28% prob
EV +11.5%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
MTL
+375
28.6% win prob
EV +17.9%
bet365
Vancouver Whitecaps travel to Montreal for a matchup the model clearly favours to the visitors. In 50,000 simulations, the Whitecaps' attacking play overwhelmed Montreal's defence enough to produce a 55–20 split in the win column. On games shaped this way historically, AccuScore's pick has graded at 74% across 278 past matchups. The game turns on whether Vancouver can convert chances into goals; their projected output sits a full 0.8 ahead of Montreal's. For the Impact to upset that expectation, their defence would need to tighten dramatically and their attack would have to find the net more than once.
| Book | VAN | EV | Draw | EV | MTL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -154 | -14.1% | +341 | +11.5% | +343 | +13.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | -149 | -13.7% | +333 | +10.4% | +333 | +11.9% |
| Betano ↗ | -143 | -13.0% | +325 | +9.3% | +350 | +14.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | -154 | -14.1% | +320 | +8.6% | +375 | +17.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | -149 | -13.7% | +300 | +5.8% | +300 | +7.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +103 | -21.7% | -127 | +14.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -250 | -15.1% | +188 | +22.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +110 | -20.7% | -128 | +14.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +100 | -22.1% | -137 | +12.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 28.6%
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Vancouver Whitecaps 44% to win, Montreal 29%, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Vancouver Whitecaps the more likely winner at 44%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Montreal a 29% chance of beating Vancouver Whitecaps, with 44% for Vancouver Whitecaps and 28% for a draw. Montreal are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Vancouver Whitecaps and Montreal come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-W-L-W-D, most recent first).
Montreal have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-L-L-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2023: Vancouver Whitecaps 2, Montreal 0, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 9, 2025, finished Montreal 0, Vancouver Whitecaps 2.